Super Tuesday Blues

Mar 1 2004

Sigh! Tomorrow is "Super Tuesday," a day when the Democrats hold primary elections in multiple states. Unfortunately the results are all but in, and the choices are limited at best. The problem is that the primaries or caucuses have been held in a number of states, several candidates have dropped out, and the people voting in "Super Tuesday" and subsequent primaries seldom have either a real choice or a real voice.

Clearly the Democrats have every right to set up their primaries any way they want, and they certainly do! They have Democratic primaries where Democrats pick the candidates, and open primaries when any voter can pick a candidate, and super delegateswho are appointed to the convention without a vote. Every method of picking delegates except holding a lottery in the guise of getting a random cross section of voters. And depending on the local rules, delegates may be committed, committed for the first vote, or have a preference, or even be officially uncommitted. The party of diversity, at least at the convension.

Each of the remaining candidates has some endorsements from people who offer their support to the candidate they feel is best qualified. Or at least most likely to win... There's the rub, groups like labor unions change their endorsement as the polls change or one candidate moves ahead in the early primaries. Someone blunt and undiplomatic would say they are not picking the best candidate, they are sucking up to the most likely to win in hopes of future favors. Does it strike you as odd that some labor unions started endorsing the front runner (Dean), then changed to the new front runner (Kerry), and ignored the one candidate who actually came from a working class family (Edwards).

This campaign has featured two buzzwords, electability and experience. Let's start with experience, which to most people means considerable previous expertise in a field. Not so in politics, where it means time in Washington, as if anything done in the real world is irrelevant. Who has executive experience in the Democratic primaries? Why Howard Dean, of course, the only candidate who has held an executive position, as governor of Vermont. Senators are legislators, and have experience making the rules, but not at working within them. Who has the military experience to lead the war against terrorism? Senator Kerry, who served as a regular solder decades ago, rather than General Wes Clark who headed all US armed forces for years recently.

Now consider electability, the measure of appeal to non-Democrats. Of all the methods used to select representatives to the convention, only an open primary gives any indication of which candidate has broad appeal to all of the voters in a district rather than the party faithful who come to vote in the primary. Open primaries do tend to dilute the influence of the party leaders, and for that reason are uncommon.

So don't expect surprises on Super Tuesday, the system doesn't work that way. The best chance for a surprise this year comes on Election Day. Don;t forget to vote!